Though also famed for its jumps racing schedule, Newbury is a top-notch Group 1 Flat track.
The Newbury track is well known for being about the fairest in the country.
It is largely flat, left-handed and wide with a straight mile which hosts the Lockinge Stakes in May. There is a five-furlong run-in from the final bend which again allows runners plenty of time to sort themselves out for a challenge.
Much like Doncaster, Haydock and York, the flat nature of Newbury makes many people think that it is always easy to get. Much like those other tracks however, it is hard to get home when the rain comes and things get pretty testing.
Newbury Course Draw Bias Overview
Yet again, pace is king at Newbury. Not many good pace horses come back to their field on decent ground here.
The stats on this would perhaps be even starker if we could take out those leaders in the home straight who went off at big prices and in reality, didn’t have much of a chance.
Don’t go for horses here who are likely to get caught too far back in the pack early on.
The draw can play a part in this, as it can make it harder or easier for the right types for Newbury to get into a good early position.
5 Furlongs at Newbury
Newbury is famously fair for all, especially on the straight track. Runners can win from anywhere on the track, but if the stalls are positioned in the middle or on the stands side then the pack will often migrate to the near side and that’s where a high draw may come in handy.
There is slightly more of a bias on softer ground, again towards the higher numbers. This could be down to drainage or other matters.
6 Furlongs at Newbury
There is no statistical bias over six furlongs on the straight course at Newbury, but high numbers are definitely slightly favoured.
The stats can be skewed by the lack of big-race handicaps. In juvenile races such as the Mill Reef Stakes, there can be a big difference in ability between runners meaning even one drawn on the outer from a low number can come and win.
7 Furlongs at Newbury
Just like over six furlongs, the straight seven at Newbury offers nothing much to us in the way of a statistical bias. Once more, if the stalls are positioned in the middle or the near side, then high numbers will be best as those out on the wing may get no cover.
Straight Mile at Newbury
There aren’t loads of races to go off, and the ‘bias’ is only slight on the stats, but again it seems higher numbers are best on the straight mile at Newbury.
In terms of the track itself, especially on good or faster going, the straight mile is very fair. There has been a slight Lockinge Stakes draw bias however as the field has tended to end up coming down the stands rails, which is naturally easier to bag from a higher draw.
Round Mile at Newbury
Newbury is left-handed with round mile races beginning in a chute. One would think there would be a slight bias towards low numbers on the inner, but the stats don’t bear it out.
There is plenty of time for the field to get organised before the home turn, then a long straight for things to work themselves out before the line.
Longer Distances at Newbury
It may pay to look out for a London Gold Cup draw bias. That race, a 1m2f handicap in May, produces notoriously strong form every single season. The form of this race cannot be underestimated.
In 2023, the placed horses were drawn 10, 14 and 16. In 2022 they were drawn 12, 8 and 13 and in 2021 they were 8, 4 and 10.
This is a small sample but if anything, it may show is that it pays for the top contenders to stay out of trouble in this race. Any early skirmishes should be avoided, something helped by a wider draw.